Trump has a three-point advantage over Clinton among likely voters in the Silver State (43-40 percent). Libertarian Gary Johnson receives eight percent. Nevada voters also can cast a ballot for “none of these,” and that option takes four percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot in Nevada.
Independents back Trump (42 percent) over Clinton (23 percent) and Johnson (21 percent).
The Democrat is trailing expectations among women and younger voters.
Those under age 45 are almost equally likely to back Clinton (42 percent) as they are to back Trump (39 percent) — and Johnson garners double-digit support (11 percent).
Women in Nevada backed Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 16-point margin in 2012, according to the Fox News Exit Poll. Clinton’s up by just six points.
Both Clinton and Trump supporters have a high degree of vote certainty (93 percent each).
“There is a huge geographic disparity in Nevada,” notes Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “Clinton is ahead in Vegas and urban areas, while Trump leads outside Vegas and in rural areas — this is an obvious advantage for Clinton in get-out-the-vote efforts.”
The race is mostly unchanged in a head-to-head matchup without Johnson: Trump 46 vs. Clinton 42 percent.
Views of President Obama’s job performance are divided: 49 percent approve, while 48 percent disapprove. He won Nevada in both 2012 (by 6.7 points) and 2008 (by 12.5 points).